He briefly worked for the Canadian Wheat Board after graduating before deciding to pursue a full-time career in broadcasting.
Permutations Video transcript Let's now tackle a classic thought experiment in probability, called the Monte Hall problem. And it's called the Monty Hall problem because Monty Hall was the game show host in Let's Make a Deal, where they would set up a situation very similar to the Monte Hall problem that we're about to say.
So let's say that on the show, you're presented with three curtains. So you're the contestant, this little chef-looking character right over there. You're presented with three curtains-- curtain number one, curtain number two, and curtain number three.
And you're told that behind one of these three curtains, there's a fabulous prize, something that you really want, a Monty hall problem, or a vacation, or some type of large amount of cash. And then behind the other two, and we don't know which they are, there is something that you do not want.
A new pet goat or an ostrich or something like that, or a beach ball, something that is not as good as the cash prize. And so your goal is to try to find the cash prize. And they say guess which one, or which one would you like to select? And so let's say that you select door number one, or curtain number one.
They want to show you whether or not you won. They'll then show you one of the other two doors, or one of the other two curtains. And they'll show you one of the other two curtains that does not have the prize. And no matter which one you pick, there'll always be at least one other curtain that does not have the prize.
There might be two, if you picked right. But there will always be at least one other curtain that does not have the prize. And then they will show it to you.
And so let's say that they show you curtain number three. And so curtain number three has the goat. And then they'll ask you, do you want to switch to curtain number two? And the question here is, does it make a difference? Are you better off holding fast, sticking to your guns, staying with the original guess?
Are you better off switching to whatever curtain is left? Or does it not matter? It's just random probability, and it's not going to make a difference whether you switch or not.
So that is the brain teaser. Pause the video now. I encourage you to think about it. In the next video, we will start to analyze the solution a little bit deeper, whether it makes any difference at all. So now I've assumed that you've unpaused it.
You've thought deeply about it. Perhaps you have an opinion on it. Now let's work it through a little bit. And at any point, I encourage you to pause it and kind of extrapolate beyond what I've already talked about. So let's think about the game show from the show's point of view.
So the show knows where there's the goat and where there isn't the goat. So let's door number one, door number two, and door number three.
So let's say that our prize is right over here. So our prize is the car.The Monty Hall problem is a famous, seemingly paradoxical problem in conditional probability and reasoning using Bayes' theorem. Information affects your decision that at first glance seems as though it shouldn't.
In the problem, you are on a game show, being asked to choose between three doors. Behind each door, there is either a car or a goat. Jul 25, · The Monty Hall Problem - Steven R. Costenoble (Java-capable browser needed) A Mathematica Notebook file to download If you're still not convinced that 2/3 is the correct probability, here are two more ways to think about the problem.
The solution to the Monty Hall Problem using Bayes Theorem. Monty Hall is back, for one last time, to host the show from the s ‘Let's Make a Deal’. The Monty Hall problem is a counter-intuitive statistics puzzle.
There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course.
Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and always opens one of them with a goat (Both doors might have goats; he’ll randomly . The Monty Hall Problem The Monty Hall Problem gets its name from the TV game show, Let's Make A Deal, hosted by Monty Hall srmvision.com scenario is such: you are given the opportunity to select one closed door of three, behind one of which there is a prize.
Monty Hall Problem --a free graphical game and simulation to understand this probability problem.